A turnout postmortem of the 2026 general election, matched voter by voter against the Suffolk County file and compared with national patterns by age, gender and party.
Select any section to jump to it. The Bellwether logo at the bottom left opens thebellwether.io.
* Preliminary: ballots counted so far divided by Suffolk’s 1,089,907 active registered voters. Affidavit and cured ballots are not yet included. † Suffolk Board of Elections official results: votes for governor divided by the Board’s registration count (566,073 of 1,041,513 in 2022; 533,605 of 963,704 in 2018). ‡ Share of eligible citizens, preliminary, so the U.S. comparison is approximate. An earlier draft showed lower 2018 and 2022 rates because it divided past voters by today’s registration. That undercounts the past: 365,619 of today’s registrants signed up after the 2018 election, and voters who have since moved or died are no longer on the file.
Source: Suffolk County Board of Elections early-vote, Election Day and absentee files, matched to the Bellwether voter file. National turnout: UF Election Lab, Michael McDonald. Past midterms: Suffolk BOE governor results, 2022 and 2018. Early-vote check: New York Focus. 2022 early vote: Riverhead Local.
Put another way: in a room of 100 registered Suffolk voters, about 17 are 18–29. In a room of 100 people who actually voted, about 9 or 10 are.
Compared with their share of registered voters, both groups under 45 are smaller among voters and both groups over 45 are larger. Against the nation, under-45s were 25.6% of Suffolk’s electorate versus 33.8% nationally; 45–64 matches the national share and 65+ runs well above it. National shares are 2022 Census CPS figures (via KFF), the latest available; 30–44 is derived as all voters 18–44 minus the 18–29 share.
The national youth surge did not reach Suffolk. Nationally, Democrats won voters 18–29 by 48 points in 2026, a 34-point swing from 2024, and young voters were 11% of the electorate (2026 SSRS voter poll for the AP and other outlets, via NPR).
Source: Suffolk County Board of Elections early-vote, Election Day and absentee files, matched to the Bellwether voter file. National shares: KFF, 2022 Census CPS. National youth vote: NPR.
Why 23.4% here and 17.4% on the last slide? They answer different questions. The last slide shows how big each age group is: 17.4% of Suffolk's registered voters are 18–29. This slide shows how many in each group voted: 23.4% of registered 18–29-year-olds cast a ballot.
Voters 65+ (190,874) outvoted everyone under 45 combined (126,430). Each bar is a separate rate for its own party, so the three bars in a row don’t add up to 100%. Minor-party registrants (about 6% of voters) are left off the chart.
Source: Suffolk County Board of Elections early-vote, Election Day and absentee files, matched to the Bellwether voter file. Party is registration on the voter file.
Each bar is 100% of that age group's voters. Absentee + mail-in voting is concentrated among seniors (8.7%); it runs 3–5% for every other group.
Source: Suffolk County Board of Elections early-vote, Election Day and absentee files, matched to the Bellwether voter file.
| Registration | Registered | Voted | Turnout | Share of voters | Voted early |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democrat DEM |
375,946 | 177,720 | 47.3% | 35.9% | 41.6% |
Republican REP |
360,159 | 171,601 | 47.6% | 34.7% | 33.2% |
Blank (no party) BLK |
356,770 | 117,438 | 32.9% | 23.8% | 32.5% |
Minor parties OTH |
65,373 | 27,716 | 42.4% | 5.6% | 32.6% |
Party is registration on the voter file, not vote choice. Blank voters are 30.8% of registrants but 23.8% of voters. Early voting is a Democratic habit: four in ten Democratic voters went early, against one in three Republicans, which matters for when chase programs start.
Source: Suffolk County Board of Elections early-vote, Election Day and absentee files, matched to the Bellwether voter file. Party is registration on the voter file.
Blank means registered with no party (BLK on the voter file). Counts by age are rounded to the nearest hundred. We don’t yet know which of these voters lean Democratic; that needs vote-history and primary data, and is next on our list.
Source: Suffolk County Board of Elections early-vote, Election Day and absentee files, matched to the Bellwether voter file.
Bars run from 0 to 50%. The one real difference is timing: women were more likely to vote early.
Gender as recorded on the voter file. 3,391 registrants are coded X, U or I and are left out of these comparisons.
Source: Suffolk County Board of Elections early-vote, Election Day and absentee files, matched to the Bellwether voter file. Gender as recorded on the voter file.
| # | Town | Registered | Turnout | Dems home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shelter Island | 2,950 | 55.6% | 500 |
| 2 | Southold | 19,540 | 54.2% | 2,400 |
| 3 | Smithtown | 99,420 | 46.9% | 12,000 |
| 4 | East Hampton | 21,703 | 46.7% | 4,700 |
| 5 | Huntington | 167,805 | 46.5% | 26,500 |
| # | Town | Registered | Turnout | Dems home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Riverhead | 25,724 | 46.2% | 3,400 |
| 7 | Southampton | 48,252 | 45.4% | 8,000 |
| 8 | Brookhaven | 377,490 | 41.3% | 61,200 |
| 9 | Islip | 237,685 | 40.4% | 45,300 |
| 10 | Babylon | 157,679 | 39.2% | 33,900 |
Brookhaven, Islip and Babylon are home to about 140,000 registered Democrats who didn’t vote, 71% of the county’s total. Democratic turnout in Islip and Babylon was about 43%, ten points below Huntington’s 53%. The top-to-bottom spread looks like 16 points, but Shelter Island has fewer than 3,000 voters; among the large towns it is about 7.
Ranked by turnout, highest first. Turnout here divides by all registrants on the file, so it runs lower than the Board of Elections rate. “Dems home” is registered Democrats with no 2026 ballot recorded, rounded to the nearest hundred.
Source: Suffolk County Board of Elections early-vote, Election Day and absentee files, matched to the Bellwether voter file. Town of residence from the voter file.
Real numbers: 143,258 of the 663,773 registered voters who didn’t vote (21.6%).
The full six-slide walkthrough is in the appendix. Rounded to whole people, so a count here can differ by one from the exact percentages elsewhere in the deck. For example, Republicans turned out slightly higher than Democrats (47.6% vs 47.3%).
Both groups under 45 are under-represented at the polls, and the national youth surge didn’t reach Suffolk. This is where the most votes are left.
Most of the 239,332 Blanks who didn’t vote are under 45. Next we need to learn which of them lean Democratic, so outreach can target them.
Brookhaven, Islip and Babylon have about 140,000 Democrats who didn’t vote. Democratic turnout in Islip and Babylon trailed Huntington by ten points.
This deck is an example of what election data can tell campaigns and candidates. Next on our list:
Every bar runs on the same 0–100% scale. Seniors and early voting are covered on the age and party slides.
Each dot stands for about 11,600 real voters. The same 100 people appear on every slide in this section, rounded to whole people.
Rounded to whole people, so a count here can differ by one from the exact percentages elsewhere in the deck. For example, Republicans turned out slightly higher than Democrats (47.6% vs 47.3%).
Filled dots voted. Rings stayed home. Under-45s are 40 of the 100 on the rolls but only 11 of the 43 who voted.
Rounded to whole people, so a count here can differ by one from the exact percentages elsewhere in the deck. For example, Republicans turned out slightly higher than Democrats (47.6% vs 47.3%).
18–29: 4 of 17 · 30–44: 7 of 23 · 45–64: 15 of 32 · 65+: 17 of 28
Rounded to whole people, so a count here can differ by one from the exact percentages elsewhere in the deck. For example, Republicans turned out slightly higher than Democrats (47.6% vs 47.3%).
8 of the 16 early voters are 65 or older.
Rounded to whole people, so a count here can differ by one from the exact percentages elsewhere in the deck. For example, Republicans turned out slightly higher than Democrats (47.6% vs 47.3%).
| Party | Registered | Voted |
|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 32 | 16 |
| Republican | 31 | 15 |
| Blank | 31 | 10 |
| Minor parties | 6 | 2 |
| Total | 100 | 43 |
Filled dots voted. Rings stayed home.
Rounded to whole people, so a count here can differ by one from the exact percentages elsewhere in the deck. For example, Republicans turned out slightly higher than Democrats (47.6% vs 47.3%).
Questions about these numbers, or want this for your district? Get in touch.